An Undervalued Chinese Dividend Stock WIth High Options Yields & Great Earnings

By Robert Hauver

12/4/10 update: CISG has responded vigorously to negative allegations from a small research firm, concerning its employee incentive “Scorecard” plan and its gross margins. Firstly, many of the plan’s incentive programs are paid for by CISG insurer partners, at no cost to CISG. Secondly, CISG Chairman Hu stated that any and all expenses related to this plan have been properly reported in CISG’s financial reports, and that CISG’s incentive plan was approved by the national Chinese insurance review board. CEO Hu also said in the Dec. 3rd conference call that CISG’s margins can’t be logically compared to the much smaller firms that the analyst used in her report, since newer firms often have much smaller margins. He pointed out that it took CISG 6 years of lower margins until it turned a profit in 2004, and that , as its volume has grown, CISG is able to earn much better brokerage commissions from its insurer partners. (CISG’s volume grew over 10 times from 2005 to 2010.)  CEO Hu also mentioned that the analysts reports may be part of a short selling campaign launched by hedge funds.

CISG has also announced the following:

  • A $100 million share buyback program – This is approx. 12% of their stock, a significant portion, and should serve to bolster CISG’s metrics a great deal, in addition to decreasing the supply of shares in the market.
  • 6-month moratorium on CISG directors/officers selling shares – CISG’s directors/officers will not sell any shares over the next 6 months.
  • CEO Hu and CEO Ge have personally purchased 100,000 shares since Nov. 24th

Original Article:

Looking for undervalued, Chinese dividend paying stocks with strong earnings, that will share in China’s future growth?  Take a look at CNinsure, (CISG), a dividend stock whose Q3 2010 net income rose 43%, and revenue rose 30%. After CISG reported these stellar Q3 earnings, the stock got beaten up in the market, (probably by short sellers – the short float is at 7.10%), before bouncing right back 13% the next day, when the firm’s officers did the right thing, and said that they’ll be buying shares of their company.  CEO Yinan Hu said in a statement that the purchase is an act of confidence in CNinsure’s stock, and said CFO Peng Ge will also purchase shares.  Hu didn’t say how much stock the managers planned to purchase, but said the shares were undervalued. Cninsure President Qiuping Lai attended a Forbes Asia dinner in Hong Kong on Tuesday, and said that business prospects were good, without referring to any specific earnings figures.

During the earnings call, CEO Hu said, “Robust growth of our three existing business lines continued into the third quarter with the life insurance business and claims adjusting business growing 109.1% and 34.3% year-over-year, respectively. The overall commission rate from the property and casualty insurance business increased over the previous quarter, which led to a year-over-year growth of 6.7% in our property and casualty insurance business in the third quarter as compared to year-over-year decline of that in the second quarter. We believe there is still room for further improvement in our property and casualty insurance commission rate.”

Although CISG’s modest 1.21% dividend yield* prevents it from  being listed in our High Dividend Stocks by Sector Tables, you can still earn double-digit high options yields from this stock, through these 2 options trading strategies :

1. Covered Calls -  Selling covered call options now would achieve a nearly 23% annualized static yield, even without adding in any potential price gains:

CISG-CALL-11-26-10

Our Covered Calls Table includes more details on the above trade, which could earn over 30% annualized, if the shares get assigned.

Here’s an additional kicker – there’s a wide range of prices between the $2.85 call option premium listed above, and the ask prices, so you may be able to sell these covered call options at an even higher price, and improve your yield.

For example, I was able to sell these same July $22.50 calls for $3.20 on Friday, even though the bid was only $2.85, which increased the static yield to 25.47% annualized, with a potential assigned yield of over 31%.

2. Cash Secured Puts – Selling cash secured put options could also earn you a 20%-plus annualized yield, based upon the Friday’s $2.55 bid:

CISG-PUT-2010-11-26

You’ll also find more details on this and other cash secured put options selling trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.  Once again, there’s a wide bid-ask price spread for these options, so you may be able to sell at a higher price, and earning high options yields better than the one shown above.

* NOTE: Many financial websites incorrectly list CISG’s dividend yield as being over 4.5%. CISG has an annual payout, not quarterly. Their 2010 ex-dividend date was in May, and their annual payout was $.26/share.

Outlook:

CISG expects its net income attributable to the Company’s shareholders to grow by approximately 32% for the fourth quarter 2010, vs. Q3 2009, excluding non-recurring investment income incurred by business combination achieved in stages. The Q3 earnings report also states, “We are now building the groundwork for our e-commerce insurance, insurance brokerage, consumer finance and wealth management businesses in an effort to turn our blueprint for the next five years into reality. Examining all the opportunities and challenges, we firmly believe that the Company will be able to continue its strong growth momentum for the next few years.

Profile:

CNinsure Inc., founded in 1998 and headquartered in Guangzhou, is a leading independent insurance intermediary company operating in China. CISG’s distribution network reaches many of China’s most economically developed regions and affluent cities. It distributes a wide variety of property and casualty insurance products and life insurance products underwritten by both domestic and foreign insurance companies operating in China, and offer insurance claims adjusting services, such as assessment, survey, authentication and loss estimation, as well as other insurance-related services to individuals and institutions. As an insurance intermediary, the Company is not exposed to any underwriting risks.

Over the past 11 years, CNinsure has established a robust distribution and service network across China. As of June 30, 2010, it had 55 affiliated insurance intermediary companies operating in the PRC, of which 49 are insurance agencies, three are insurance brokerages and three are insurance adjusting companies. With 46,857 sales professionals, 1,358 claims adjustors and 576 sales and service outlets, its distribution network reaches 23 provinces, including some of China’s most economically developed regions and affluent cities in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.  The company is a member of this year’s Forbes Asia Best Under A Billion List.

CISG stacks up well vs. its Insurance Broker peers:

CISG-COMP-2010-11-26

Disclosure: Author is long CISG shares, and short CISG puts and calls.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only.

3 Undervalued Dividend Aristocrats With High Options Yields

By Robert Hauver

If you’re looking for steady dividend paying stocks with a long history of paying dividends, the S&P Dividend Aristocrats is a good place to start your research.  These stocks have all increased their dividends each year for the past 25 years.  This week we screened the S&P Dividend Aristocrats for dividend paying stocks with low next-year PEG ratios, strong next year EPS estimates, low debt loads, attractive financial & management metrics, and low to moderate price gains over the past year.

We came up with 3 prospects: Aflac, (AFL), Leggett & Platt, (LEG), and Lowe’s, (LOW). Lowe’s and Leggett & Platt are plays on the consumer, via the home improvement and home furnishing categories, while Aflac sells supplemental accidental and health insurance, mainly through employers. With a 5%-plus dividend yield, LEG is listed in the Consumer Discretionary sector of our High Dividend Stocks by Sector Tables.

Financial/Mgt. Metrics:

As you can see, all 3 firms have a relatively low debt load, but AFL has the best ROE and Profitability numbers.  However, LEG wins in the dividend yield category:

AFL-ROE-2010-11-16

Share Performance:

AFL-LOW-PERF-2010-11-15

Although  AFL’s 1-year and YTD share price performance is much higher than LEG and LOW, AFL still looks undervalued, on a PEG basis:

Valuation:

AFL-LOW-LEG-PEG-2010-11-15

Although AFL’s next-year EPS growth estimates are the lowest of the group, its much lower P/E translates into a lower Next Year PEG of .76. AFL also has the lowest 5-year PEG of the group, with .97.

There are Covered Calls and Cash Secured Puts available on all 3 of these dividend stocks. In fact, AFL and LEG both have high options yields, ranging up to the 20%-plus range, for these Covered Call options:

AFL-CALL-2010-11-16

You can find more details in our Covered Calls Table.

The Cash Secured Put options have a broader range, and also offer double-digit annualized yields:

AFL-PUT-2010-11-16

There are more details for the above put option sales in our Cash Secured Puts Table.

Disclosure: No positions yet.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. © 2010 DeMar Marketing. All Rights Reserved.

An Undervalued Chinese Dividend Stock With High Options Yields

By Robert Hauver

In spite of this week’s 2% pullback, the S&P is up almost 15% since Sept. 1st, so we went looking for foreign dividend paying stocks that haven’t advanced as much as the general market, but still have strong metrics, low debt, and good growth prospects for next year. We came up with China Mobile, (CHL), a dividend stock which is also the biggest mobile firm in the world.

With over 522.283 million customers, China Mobile, (CHL), has the world’s largest mobile customer base, and dominates the Chinese mobile market, with a market share of approximately 70.6% in Mainland China. The Group’s GSM global roaming services covered 237 countries and regions and its GPRS roaming services covered 182 countries and regions.

The Company’s majority shareholder is China Mobile (Hong Kong) Group Limited, which, as of 31 December 2009, indirectly held an equity interest of approximately 74.22% in the Company through a wholly-owned subsidiary, China Mobile Hong Kong (BVI) Limited. The remaining equity interest of approximately 25.78% of the Company was held by public investors.

With a 3.5%-plus dividend yield, CHL just made it into the Telecom stocks section of our High Dividend Stocks by Sector Tables.  However, it also has some high options yields, which we’ve listed later in the article.  Here’s how CHL compares to its Wireless Industry Peer Group:

CHL-ROE-2010-11-12

CHL also has a low dividend payout ratio of 43.02%.

Although analysts’ 5-year EPS growth projections aren’t very high, CHL does have a low next year PEG ratio, which supports short-term options trading strategies, such as selling Covered Calls and Cash Secured Puts.

CHL-PEG-2010-11-12

The following 2 option trades expire in June 2011:

CHL-CALL-2010-11-12

You can find more details on the above call option trade in our Covered Calls Table.

Selling June cash secured put options would also net you a double-digit annualized yield:

CHL-PUTS-2010-11-12

We’ve added the above put trade this week to our Cash Secured Puts Table, which lists additional details.

CHL Market Analysis:

With revenue and a subscriber base more than twice the size of it closest competitor, China Mobile can afford more spending on technology and products and can launch new services at a lower cost per customer, thereby fetching higher margins than its rivals. A strong brand helps the carrier attract and retain not only high-spending business subscribers, the most profitable segment, but also the best mobile application developers and business partners, which reinforces China Mobile’s competitive edge in service offering and user experience.

The growth prospects for China Mobile remain attractive, as the carrier benefits from rising mobile penetration in China. The current penetration rate of around 50% is significantly below that of emerging markets such as Mexico and Brazil (at over 70%), and this gap should narrow in the coming years, with rising disposable income levels in China. While the urban markets may have become saturated, most of the future growth will come from the vast rural areas, where income levels of 800 million residents are lower than in the cities, but are growing steadily. These rural markets are a sweet spot for China Mobile, which, with its lower cost base, can afford to roll out basic voice plans and entry-level handsets to attract price-sensitive rural residents, and still make decent profits. Its rivals, China Unicom, (CHU) and China Telecom, (CHA) , probably can’t afford to compete aggressively in this market.

However, China Mobile faces a tough fight in the 3G market, where its competitors enjoy considerable advantages based on technology.
(CHL is mandated by the Chinese government to provide 3G services based on a nascent home-grown technology standard called TD-SCDMA(TD), while its rivals can deploy commercially mature 3G technology with a well-established vendor network.)  In the long term, this could erode CHL’s competitive advantage. (Source: Morningstar)

Disclosure: No positions at this time

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only.

Top 5 Dogs Of The Dow – Highest Dividend Stocks & Options Yields

By Robert Hauver

Looking for well-known high dividend stocks?  The Dogs of the Dow strategy advocates buying the 10 Dow dividend paying stocks with the highest dividend yield.  This week we narrowed this group down to 5 stocks with the highest dividend yields and the highest option yields.  As usual, there are mixed metrics among the group:

DOGS-Dow-ROE-2010-11-04

Verizon’s ROE, (Return On Equity), of just 1.08, looks particularly flea-bitten, when compared to the rest of the pack.

Valuation metrics:

DOGS-Dow-VAL'N-2010-11-04

While the long-term PEG ratios for these stocks aren’t very compelling, the next year PEG’s for 2 of them, Merck and Kraft, look attractive, as they’re below 1.  This plays into the idea of a shorter term strategy, such as selling Covered Calls or Cash Secured Puts, with Feb. – April expiration dates.

The basic Covered Call option yields for these dividend stocks are listed below.  We’ve listed the complete info for these trades, including expiration dates, and the additional potential price gains, in our Covered Calls table.

DOGS-Dow-CALLS-2010-11-04

The Cash Secured Put options for these stocks also currently offer high options yields:

DOGSDow-Puts-2010-11-04

We’ve added these trades this week to our Cash Secured Puts Table, where you’ll find more details.

Disclosure: Author is short T calls and puts, and long T shares.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only.

© 2010 DeMar Marketing.  All rights reserved.