Two High Yield Strategies For Hedging Dow Dividend Stocks

By Robert Hauver

As of  Oct. 27th, the S&P has come back 17% since its nadir of 1099.23 on Oct. 3rd,  leaving some investors nervous about how long the current rally can last. If you’d like to participate in the rally AND have some protection, selling covered calls and/or cash secured put options may interest you.

The key is to use these strategies with dividend stocks that you’re comfortable owning. In our 2 examples, we’ll use Caterpillar, (CAT), which has been one of the best stocks to buy in this current rally, since it’s up more than any other Dow dividend stocks over the past trading month.

Selling Covered Calls to hedge your gains: (You’ll find more details on this and over 30 other high yield covered call trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

If you’d had the prescience to buy CAT on Oct. 3rd, when it began to rise from its year-to-date low of $70.55, all the way to $96.33, (up 36.5% through Oct. 27th), you could hedge over a third of your gain by selling covered call options. Here’s how it works:

(By selling covered calls, you’re committing to sell the underlying shares at whatever strike price you sell the call option at. Each option contract corresponds to 100 shares of the underlying stock, so we’ll use 100 shares of CAT to keep this example clear.)

1. Underlying stock cost/share: $70.55

2. 10/27/11 closing cost/share: $96.33

3. Find the Options Chain for CAT, and click open the May 2012 options. There are call options at a strike price of $97.50, which are selling for $9.55, roughly 37% of the Oct. gains that CAT has made. The idea here is to sell call options above the current strike price, which are “out of the money”. This allows you additional potential price gains if the shares get assigned/sold:

CAT-SWB-CALLS

4. You’d “sell to open”,  one $97.50 call option contract for each 100 shares of CAT that you own.  This obligates you to potentially have to sell your shares of CAT at $97.50 up until the expiration date of May 19, 2012. (US options expire on the 3rd Friday of the month, and are usually deemed expired or assigned during the next 2 days, Saturday or Sunday, by your broker.) In this example, you’d receive $955.00 for each contract you sell. This money is normally credited to your account by online brokers the same day, or within 3 business days of the trade at the latest.  You get paid right away, instead of waiting for the quarterly dividend.

Your breakeven is $60.08, your initial cost of $70.55/share, minus the call option sale of $9.55/share, and minus the $.92/share in dividends you’ll qualify for prior to expiration.

Notice how the call bid premium, $9.55, is over 10 times the dividend of $.92?

CAT-CALLS

Outcome Scenarios For Covered Calls:

1. CAT doesn’t rise above $97.50 – The $97.50 call options expire worthless, leaving you with your $955.00 option annualized static yield of 24.46%, plus the 2 quarterly dividends totaling $92.00/100 shares, and you still own your shares.

2. CAT rises above $97.5o, enough for your shares to be assigned/sold away from you at $97.50/share. In addition to the call option sale money of $9.55/share, your profit also includes $26.95/share, (the difference between the $97.50 and your $70.55 cost), and the 2 quarterly dividends, for a total annualized assigned yield of 95.84%.

Please note: this is an extremely high annualized assigned yield, because of the big price gain involved. If you’d bought CAT at $96.33 on 10/27/11, and it was assigned/sold at expiration in May, your total assigned yield would be 21.96%, which is still very attractive.

In scenario #2, it depends upon whether or not there are any call option buyers who paid a price that’s lower than the difference between the $97.50 strike price you sold the calls at, and CAT’s price near or at expiration. If it’s advantageous, these call buyers would exercise the call option to buy your shares at $97.50. (In general, option buyers tend to exercise call options to buy a stock as it gets closer to the expiration date.)

3. CAT rises above $97.50, but not enough for your shares to get assigned/sold away from you.  In this scenario, it depends upon whether or not there are any call option buyers who paid a price that’s lower than the difference between the $97.50 strike price you sold the calls at, and CAT’s price near or at expiration. The outcome is the same as scenario #1.

Selling Cash Secured Puts: (There are more details on this and over 30 other high yielding cash secured put trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

Suppose you missed the big October move for CAT, and you still want to own it, but you don’t want to pay the current price. Selling cash secured puts at a strike price below the stock’s current price offers you a lower break-even price than the current stock price, and immediate income. However, unlike selling covered calls, you don’t collect any dividends. We’ll use the same May 2012 expiration month for this put option example.

Since CAT closed at $96.33, let’s sell one $95.00 put option, just “out of the money”. This obligates you to potentially have to buy 100 shares of CAT at $95.00/share near or on the expiration date of May 19, 2012. Your broker will reserve/hold $9,500.00 in your account when you sell this $95.00 put, which is the “cash reserved” part of the equation.

As with the call options, these puts pay over 10 times what the dividends pay: $10.15 vs. $.92.

1. You’d “sell to open” 1 put option contract for every 100 shares of CAT that you want to own. You receive $10.15/share, or a total of $1015.00 for each option contract sold.  Your breakeven is $84.85, which equals the $95.00 strike price, minus the put price of $10.15 that you sold for.

CAT-PUTS

Potential Outcome Scenarios For Selling Cash Secured Puts:

1. CAT doesn’t fall below $95.00 – The $95.00 put options expire worthless, leaving you with your $1015.00 profit, a 19.31% annualized  yield.  Your broker releases the $9,500.00 cash reserves in your account.

2. CAT falls below $95.00, but is still above your breakeven – If CAT only falls $5.00, for example, to $90.00, you still may be assigned/sold the 100 shares at $90.00, if it’s advantageous for a put buyer to exercise his put option.

However, since your $84.85 breakeven price is still lower than CAT’s $90.00 price, you could sell these 100 assigned shares and still turn a $5.15/share profit, although it’d be a smaller one than your initial put profit. Or, you might choose to hold the shares for future price appreciation and dividend income.

3. CAT falls below your breakeven – You can “retreat” from an underwater sold put position at any time before expiration, by “buying to close” the sold puts, which closes out the position, and “selling to open” a new put position, at a lower strike price, and/or at a different expiration month.  Generally, the further out in time you sell options, the higher the premiums are, so there’s a chance of recouping a loss by selling longer-dated options.  A good idea is to keep a spreadsheet with your breakeven price vs. the current price of the stock, to monitor your position.  This spread will be different than the price you sold the option for and the option’s current price.

Disclosure: Author is short puts of CAT.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

© 2011 DeMar Marketing. All Rights Reserved.

Growing Dividends Down On The Farm

By Robert Hauver

Which Farm & Construction Machinery stocks are the best stocks to buy now?  The stocks in this formerly very popular group been heavily beaten down, like many other Industrials,  due to global slowdown concerns. However, emerging nations, like Brazil, offer big opportunities for agricultural equipment makers, due to the need for increasing crop yields.

Although there aren’t too many dividend paying stocks within this industry, we did find 3 undervalued, conservatively run dividend stocks there, each with a low dividend payout ratio, attractive metrics, low valuations, and good growth:

CASC-DE-NC-DIVS

Deere has paid, and mostly increased its dividends since 1984; Cascade has paid out dividends since 1986, and Nacco has paid dividends since 1985. Cascade slashed its quarterly dividend from $.20 down to $.01 in 2009, but restored it to $.20 in 2011, and just increased it to $.25 in September.  Deere and Nacco both increased their dividends in 2011.

CASCADE is a worldwide supplier of lift truck attachments and related products based in Oregon. It serves the pulp & paper, grocery, textiles, consumer goods, and recycling industries. In addition, it serves original equipment manufacturers of vehicles for agriculture, mining, construction, and industrial uses.

JOHN DEERE operates in 3 segments: Agriculture & Turf (77% of sales), Construction & Forestry, and Credit. Deere forecasts that, “Worldwide sales of the company’s agriculture and turf division are forecast to increase by about 21% for full-year 2011.  Sales of construction and forestry equipment are forecast to increase by about 45% for full-year 2011.”

NACCO operates globally in these main industries: lift trucks, small appliances, specialty retail and mining.

Earnings & Valuations: All 3 firms had impressive earnings growth in their most recent quarter and fiscal years, and they have low PEG valuations.

Nacco’s valuations look very low on a PEG  and Price/Book basis. Their estimated growth rate for the next 5 years is currently 59%, which accounts for the very low .08 5-year PEG.

Deere announced this week that it will build 2 new factories in Brazil, to meet growing market demand for its construction equipment products in Brazil and other South American countries.  Deere’s CEO feels that machinery demand in the BRIC nations will eventually rival that of the US.

CASC-DE-NC-PEG

Financials: Deere has the most debt of these stocks, but it has an interest coverage ratio of 5.1.

CASC-DE-ROE

Options: There are high options yields currently for Deere’s call options and put options. Deere is the only stock in this group that has options.

(The 2 trades listed below are both based on options which expire in March 2012.):

Covered Calls:

There are further details on this and over 30 other high yield covered call trades in our Covered Calls Table.

These call options pay over 13 times as much as the quarterly dividends over a 5-month period, ($5.50 vs. $.41).

Also, if the shares get assigned, there’s an additional potential $3.25/share profit, for a total yield of over 13.23%, or 32.84% annualized.

DE-Calls

Cash Secured Puts: DE’s puts have even higher options yield, thanks to the ongoing market volatility. Selling out of the money cash secured puts below the current underlying price gives yo a break-even price of $60.85, just above Deere’s 52-week low of $59.92.  You can find more details on this and over 30 other high yielding cash secured put trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.

DE-PUTS

Disclosure: No positions.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

© 2011 DeMar Marketing. All Rights Reserved.

3 Tech Dividend Stocks Leading The Market

By Robert Hauver

In terms of dividend stocks that are outperforming the market, the Tech sector offers some of the best stocks to buy in 2011 for share performance. Tech has outperformed all other sectors over the last month, and is also among market leaders for the past trading quarter: (Performance through 10/13/11. Month = 21 trading days; Week = 5 trading days; Quarter = 63 trading days)

11

These 3 stocks had the best performance for dividend paying stocks in the Tech sector for the 5 trading days through 10/13/11, and have also outperformed the S&P 500 in the past quarter, month, and year-to-date:

KLAC-LLTC-PERF

The Tech sector may not be renowned as a pocket of high dividend stocks, but Tech firms are quickly realizing the market value of paying dividends.

In fact, this sector has raised its overall dividends by over 35% thus far in 2011, lagging only the Financials and Materials sectors for dividend increases. (The hated Financial sector had the biggest decrease in dividends during the crisis, and has been accelerating its dividends recently, as banks are once again are able and are allowed by the gov’t. to pay dividends):

SP-Q3Divs

Dividends: These 3 firms all have dividend yields far above the Tech sector average, a low dividend payout ratio, and have increased their dividends in 2011:

KLAC-LLTC-INTC-DIVS

High Options Yields: As we’ve noted recently, market turmoil has increased volatility, which continues to raise options prices, much to the benefit of sellers of covered call options and put options.

(The trades listed below are all based on options which expire in Jan. 2012.)

You can find more details on this and over 25 other high yield covered call trades in our Covered Calls Table.

Covered Calls: These call options pay up to nearly 10 times as much as the quarterly dividends over this 3-month period.

KLAC-LLTC-CALLS

Cash Secured Puts: Want to be more conservative?  You can sell cash secured put options at a strike price below the current share price and achieve a lower break-even, in addition to getting paid almost immediately, as opposed to waiting for quarterly dividends. (Online brokers must credit options sales to your account within 3 days after the trade, and they often credit the cash immediately after you make a trade.)  As you can see below, KLAC’s put options pay 10 times their quarterly dividend.

There are more details on this and over 25 other high yielding cash secured put trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.

KLAC-LLTC-PUTS

Valuations: LLTC looks undervalued on a PEG basis, but its Price/Book is far above the industry avg. of 2.72. LLTC did, however, increase its tangible book value/share from only $.20 in 2009, to $2.20 in 2010. As we’ve noted recently, Intel’s 3.40% growth forecast for its next fiscal year may well be too modest, giving it too high of a near-term PEG:

KLAC-LLTC-PEG

Financials: These firms are all above their industry avgs. for mgt. efficiency ratios and operating margins . KLAC and INTC’s debt loads are also less than industry avgs., while LLTC’s debt/equity ratio is way above its peer avg. of just .24. 

KLAC-LLTC-ROE

Disclosure: Author is long shares and short covered calls of INTC.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

© 2011 DeMar Marketing. All Rights Reserved.

2 Dow Dividend Stocks With P/E’s At 5-Year Lows And High Option Yields

By Robert Hauver

If you’re wondering about which Dow dividend stocks are the best stocks to buy now for dependable dividends, consider this:  Exxon and AT&T are both very near their 5-year P/E lows. In addition, AT&T is cheap on a P/Book basis, whereas Exxon has traditionally commanded higher multiples than most its oil industry peers:

T-XOM-PE

Dividends: XOM upped its quarterly dividends in Q2 2011 to $.47/share from $.44, while T raised its dividend to $.43 in Q1 2011, from $.42. AT&T’s 5-year dividend growth rate exceeds its peers, and Exxon’s is slightly under its peers. However, Exxon has also traditionally split its shareholder “paybacks” between dividends and share buybacks.

You’ll find T listed in the Telecoms section of our High Dividend Stocks By Sector Tables.

T-XOM-DIVS

High Options Yields: The call and put options listed below for these Dow dividend stocks  expire in Jan. 2012 , and greatly exceed the quarterly dividends over this 4-month term.

In fact, Exxon’s call options pay almost 9 times what the dividends pay.

There are further details on this and several other high yielding covered call trades in our Covered Calls Table.

Covered Calls:

t-xom-calls

Cash Secured Puts: AT&T’s Jan. 2012 $27.50 puts achieve a break-even price that’s nearly 4% below its 52-week low. As with the call options, the put options have much higher payouts over this term than the quarterly dividend.

T-XOM-PUTS

You’ll find more details on this and many other high yield cash secured put trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.

EPS Growth: Both T and XOM enjoyed very good earnings in their most recent fiscal years. AT&T’s iPhone deal with Apple was very positive for earnings, and Exxon benefited from strong crude prices.  T’s 12-month PEG is lower than XOM’s, thanks to very low growth forecasts for XOM.  Of course, nobody really knows if global demand and prices will rise enough during the near term for XOM to achieve stronger growth next fiscal year or not.  However, it’s a reasonably logical long term bet that Exxon will benefit from long term crude demand, and will also benefit also from natural gas demand, with its purchase of XTO Energy, the biggest natural gas firm in N. America. In fact, Exxon execs are predicting that natural gas will replace coal as the 2nd most used energy source by 2030. One other thing to note is that crude futures prices have been tending to rise with positive economic data, so, if the US economy continues to hold up, Exxon should probably benefit.

AT&T’s growth forecasts are somewhat tempered by the loss of its iPhone exclusivity, and also from increased competition and market saturation. However, AT&T may have an advantage with the Apple’s new iPhone lineup, since AT&T’s network can handle the faster speeds of the new phone. Apple will also give AT&T an exclusive for the 3GS iPhone that will be given away to customers who sign up for a 2-year contract. One uncertainty obscuring AT&T’s future is whether or not the T-Mobile deal will be approved.  The US Justice Dept. currently has a suit  to block the deal, due to fears of higher prices for consumers.

T-XOM-PEG

Financials: AT&T’s financial ratios are above industry avgs., excepting its operating margin, which is below its peers”s 16.04% avg.  Exxon’s ROE and ROI are better than its peers, but it falls below industry avgs. in the remaining categories.

T-XOM-ROE

Share Performance (through 10/6/11): XOM fell more than T in this past trading quarter’s correction, due to being in the Basic Materials sector, which was the 3rd worst performing sector during this time. However, both stocks have outperformed the S&P over the past month, year, and year-to-date:

T-XOM-PERF

Disclosure: Author is long shares of XOM and T.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

© 2011 DeMar Marketing.  All rights reserved.