An Easy Strategy For Hedging 2011 Apple Gains

By Robert Hauver

If you were blessed with enough foresight to buy AAPL earlier in 2011 when it dipped, you probably have a profitable unrealized gain right now.  Once again, Apple was one of the best stocks to buy this year for price gains, rising over 24%, from $325.64, to approx. $405.12, as of 12/29/11.

Even though Apple doesn’t currently pay dividends, and isn’t normally part of our coverage of dividend stocks, in last week’s article we wrote about a lucrative, conservative strategy you can use to create your own AAPL dividend that has a higher yield than many high dividend stocks do.

This week’s article details one more way you can create decent income from Apple, and/or, if you now own AAPL shares, you could lock in a good % of 2011′s price gains. With so much uncertainty ahead in 2012 – a US presidential election, ongoing Eurozone debt problems, etc., many forecasters are predicting another volatile year in the market.

Selling Covered Calls is a strategy for hedging some of your downside risk on a stock, that offers you immediate income, and also has tax deferral advantages.  Since you only pay taxes on your options gains for the tax year in which the option expires or is closed out, you can often get tax-deferred use of your option income for 1-2 years.

For example, suppose on Jan. 3, 2012, you sell AAPL call options that expire in Jan. 2013. You get paid the call premium within 3 days of the sale, but you don’t have to report this income and pay taxes on it until April 2014, if you let it expire in Jan. 2013.

You can see more info on over 30 high yield Covered Calls trades discussed in our other recent articles in our Covered Calls Table.

Some of the key decisions to make when selling covered call options are:

1. How far out in time to sell covered calls – Generally, the further out in time you sell, the higher the premium, due to the time value of the options.  The trade-off, however, is the additional uncertainty of going further out into the future. Currently, there are AAPL options available in 2012-Jan, Feb, March, April, and Oct.; Jan 2013; and Jan 2014.  AAPL usually has high options yields and strong volume/liquidity, and there are many options to choose from.

This table below compares the current expiration months, using the same $410.00 strike price, with AAPL’s 12/29/11 price as a cost basis.

Call option premiums increase as you go further out in time, giving you a lower break-even, but a lower annualized yield also:

AAPL-TIME-405

“Static Break-Even” equals the difference between the stock’s cost of $405.12, and the call bid premium for each month’s strike price. If the stock remains static, (it doesn’t rise above the strike price at or near expiration), then the stock usually doesn’t get assigned/sold away from you. You keep your shares, and move on.  If the stock does rise above your strike price, your AAPL shares will get assigned/sold, and you’ll earn an additional profit. (In general, most assignments occur at or near the time of expiration.)

In the above examples, we used a $410.00 strike price, which is $4.88 above the $405.12 cost of AAPL.  This represents your potential assigned gain.  To calculate your total gain, just add the call bid premium to the potential assigned gain. Ex.) For the March 2012 $410.00 call, you’d receive a $21.05 call bid premium. If AAPL rises higher than the $410.00 strike price, most likely your shares will be sold/assigned, and you’ll also earn an additional $4.88 in price gains, for a total gain of $25.93.

How to hedge your 2011 price gains: The table below uses AAPL’s 1/3/11 $325.64 price as a cost basis, and shows what % of AAPL’s year-to-date 2011 profit you could hedge, via selling $410.00 covered calls in different expiration months.  As usual, the further into the future you sell, the higher premium you get, and the more of your profit you hedge, but your annualized yield decreases. (Note: The call bid premium is based upon what the current bid/offer is for each option, as opposed to the ask/sell price. There’s often quite a spread between the two, so you may be able to sell at a higher premium than the current call bid premium):

AAPL-TIME-325

2. Which call option strike price should I sell at – i.e., Should I choose an option strike price closer to, or much higher than the stock’s current price?

Option sellers usually base this decision upon their take on the market, and the stock’s future prospects for price gains.  The more bullish you are on a stock, the further “out of the money”, (above the stock’s current price), you may wish to sell calls at. The reason being that, when you sell a call option, you’re obligating yourself to potentially have to sell the stock in the future, at your sold call option’s strike price, no matter how much higher the stock rises. (Note: 1 option contract corresponds to 100 shares of the underlying stock.)

So, if you feel that AAPL might rise far beyond its current $405.00 price, (as do several analysts), you’d probably choose to sell at a higher strike price than a more bearish investor, who is more interested in locking in current price gains, and creating more immediate income, than in speculating on potential future price gains.  Indeed, that’s one of the other attractions of selling covered calls, you know exactly what your upside potential and your downside break-even are before you make the trade.

The trade-off is that call options further above the stock’s price, (out of the money), have a lower premium than those closer to the stock’s price, (at the money), or below a stock’s price, (in the money).

Here’s a comparison of various strike prices, using $405.12 as AAPL’s cost basis to further illustrate this point:

AAPL-STRIKE-405

Your potential assigned price gain per share increases with each higher strike price. However, your downside break-even price also increases.

The table below compares how much % of year-to-date AAPL profit you can hedge, using different strike prices:

AAPL-STRIKE-325

Again, your % of profit hedged declines, as you sell at a higher strike price, but your potential for additional price gains increases $5.00 with each higher strike price, in this example.

A bullish investor might choose a higher strike price for AAPL, leaving himself more potential for additional price gains on top of the current $79.48 year-to-date profit. (The additional price gains are calculated as the difference between $405.12 and the strike price.)  A less bullish. or conservative investor may wish to sell at a lower strike price, and hedge more of his year-to-date profit.  He’d also have a lower break-even.

Trading Range: If you sold a call at the $420.00 strike price from the table above, your trading range would be:

Max. Price Equivalent of $470.75, ($420.00 strike price plus $50.75 call bid premium), and Downside Break-Even of $274.89, ($325.64 stock cost basis less $50.75 call bid premium).

Valuations: Small wonder that AAPL is so popular with institutional and individual investors, when you consider its strong growth has happened during a period of recession and slow economic growth. 

AAPL-PEG

Financials: There’s not much to quibble about with AAPL’s financial metrics either, although many AAPL shareholders would like to see the company join other Tech firms, such as Cisco, and enter the ranks of dividend paying stocks. However, for dividend investors, selling covered calls and cash secured puts offer 2 lucrative alternatives for creating income from AAPL.

(Note: You can see details on over 30 high yield Cash Secured Puts trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

APPL-ROE

Disclosure: Author is short puts of AAPL.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2011 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

How To Create An Apple Dividend

By Robert Hauver

Apple still isn’t part of the dividend stocks universe, in spite of its shareholders’ ramped up demands for the company to pay out some of its huge $51 billion cash pile as dividends. However, there’s an effective, lucrative strategy that we’ve often used, via which you can earn a higher yield on AAPL than on most high dividend stocks.

If you had been able to buy AAPL at $291.60 in 2011, would you have taken that risk?  How about $302.50?  As AAPL’s 52-week range is $310.50 to $426.70, both prices would have been quite profitable.  AAPL has been one of  best stocks to buy in 2011 for price gains, having risen 23.56% year-to-date.

But if you’re an income investor, not a trader, and AAPL still doesn’t pay dividends, what can you do?

Solution: Create your own “dividend” from Apple via selling cash secured put options below the current stock price, to give yourself the most desirable combo of a lower break-even and highest yield. Even Even though AAPL doesn’t currently pay dividends, we’ll show you below that it does have high options yields which can be very lucrative. The trade-off to manage is that the lower strike price you sell the put options at, the lower your break-even should be, but the lower your yield is.

(Note: You can see more info on over 30 high yield Cash Secured Puts trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

Here are 2 examples of 2011 AAPL put-selling trades:

1. Jan. 2011 Cash Secured Put Selling Trade:

On Jan. 18, 2011, we sold Jan. 2012 $330.00 cash secured puts for $38.40, creating a break-even of $291.60.  These put options are worth only $.44 each at the time of this writing.

AAPL closed at $340.65 the day of this first trade, and had a 200-day moving avg. of $280.87, and a 50-day moving avg. of $322.64.

Our break-even of $291.60 was 3.82% above AAPL’s 200-day avg., and 9.62% below its 50-day avg.

AAPL-JAN TRADE

2. Oct. 2011 Cash Secured Put Selling Trade:

On Oct. 4, 2011, we sold July $345.00 cash secured puts for $42.50, creating a break-even of $302.50. These put options are worth only $19.15 each at the time of this writing.

AAPL traded for $372.50 the day of this trade. Its 200-day moving average was $350.55, and its 50-day moving average was $382.55.

Our $302.50 break-even was far below both the long and short-term avgs: 14.27% below the 200-day avg. and 20.9% below the 50-day avg.

AAPL-OCT TRADE

Our Oct. trade was certainly aided by the much higher market volatility present then, as the VIX “fear factor” hit a high of 46.88 the day we made our Oct. trade, vs. its 15.87 close when we made our Jan. trade.

This much higher volatility allowed us to sell put options at a strike price much further “out of the money” in Oct., ($27.50 below AAPL’s Oct. 4th price), vs. selling only $10 below AAPL’s Jan. 18th price.

Timing: In hindsight, the January 2011 trade was a riskier one, even though the break-even was lower, for a couple of reasons:

1. Our break-even was above AAPL’s 200-day average.

2. AAPL had not  entered the oversold region yet. You can see at the far left on the stochastic chart below, (bottom chart), that although we placed the Jan. trade just a few days before AAPL bottomed out at a $326 level, it wasn’t until late Feb. that AAPL entered the oversold low point on the chart:

AAPL-BlueChart

We made the Oct. trade when AAPL hit an oversold “valley” on the stochastic chart, and this better timing has played out thus far in accelerating the profit in this trade.

Here’s how the 2 trades compare in amount of total profit realized over roughly similar time periods. The Jan. trade only realized 20.80% of its potential profit in 72 days, while the Oct. trade has realized nearly 55% of its profit in 79 days:

AAPL-2 TRADE COMP

The lesson from these 2 trades is to try to wait for oversold conditions before selling cash secured puts. All other things being equal, this should help you to realize your potential profit sooner, and should also improve your cash flow. This is another example of the old Buffett saying, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”. In other words, some of your most profitable opportunities will emerge when the market looks bleak.  We made the Oct. trade on the heels of the -9.79% Sept. pullback, when US economic data was less rosy, and the European crisis was dominating the news – all in all, a rather dark atmosphere…

What action to take now: Keep this idea in your back pocket and wait.  AAPL is currently overbought on the stochastic chart, so wait for the next market downturn, and keep an eye on AAPL’s charts to see when it hits a “valley” low point at 20 or below on its stochastic chart. Volatility has subsided somewhat, but it’ll most likely return soon enough in 2012, given all of the current domestic and global economic and political issues in the news.

To walk through the details and mechanics of a cash secured put trade, please see this article: 2 High Yield Strategies For Hedging Dow Dividend Stocks, which also illustrates a covered call options trade.

The Covered Calls trades discussed in our other recent articles are listed in our Covered Calls Table.

Disclosure: Author is short puts of AAPL.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2011 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

2 Defensive Dividend Stocks Outperforming The S&P

By Robert Hauver

Looking to play defense in the market? As the market has vacillated between up and down months since July, income investors are seeking dividend paying stocks with less correlation-i.e., dividend stocks which are defensive during pullbacks, but still share in rallies. It has become more challenging to find such an animal, but they are out there. However, defensive stocks aren’t always the best stocks to buy for growth.  These two giant Healthcare dividend stocks, Lilly and Pfizer, have both outperformed the S&P in 2011, in both up and down markets:

LLY-pfe-perf

Performance-wise, LLY and PFE flip-flopped in the Sept. and Nov. pullbacks and the Oct. rally. Lilly just got a nice boost recently, after an analyst said that LLY’s anti-Alzheimer drug could double the share price, if proven to be effective, which he thought it had a 10-20% chance of.

Dividends:

LLY-PFE-DIVS

Financials: Lilly’ metrics outshine Pfizer’s, and also its Big Pharma peers.

LLY-PFE-ROE

Options: The put and call options trades listed in this article expire in April for LLY, and March for PFE.

Covered Calls: Although Lilly and Pfizer’s don’t have high option yields when compared to other stocks we’ve covered recently, such as CAT or CMI, both of the options trading strategies listed here give you a chance to significantly improve upon these stocks’ dividend yields over this 4-5 month period.

(You can find more details on these and more than 30 high yield covered calls in our Covered Calls Table.)

LLY-PFE-CALLS

Cash Secured Puts:  LLY’s put options offer more yield than PFE’s.  Since PFE and LLY have made 17% to 20%-plus gains year-to-date,  selling cash secured puts below the current stock prices might be the most conservative approach you could take in potentially accumulating shares. (Note: Put sellers don’t receive dividends.)

(There are more details on these and over 30 high yield options trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

LLY-PFE-PUTS

EPS/Valuations: Due to issues with patent expirations, the future sales forecasts are sub-par for LLY and nearly flat for PFE. As we mentioned earlier though, there’s a trade-off between growth and defense in these stocks.

LLY-PFE-EPS

Disclosure: Author has no positions in LLY or PFE at the time of publication.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2011 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

3 Solid Industrial Dividend Stocks With High Options Yields

By Robert Hauver

In last week’s article, we showed that the Industrial sector has the 2nd best record for beating & meeting 3rd quarter earnings estimates. It also has the 2nd highest EPS growth estimate for the next fiscal year, trailing only Tech. This week we searched for additional attractive dividend paying stocks in the Industrials sector, focusing on finding the best stocks to buy for growth, valuation, financial metrics, and high options yields:

ETN-ITW-TYC-DIVS

Covered Calls: Although these aren’t high dividend stocks, you can easily earn a much higher overall yield from them, by combining their dividends with high call options yields.

These call options pay up to 11 times more than the dividends during these 4-5 month trades.

The Static Yield refers to the combination of the call option and dividend yields, which represents your total income if the underlying stock isn’t If the stock doesn’t rise above the call strike price at or near expiration.  The Total Potential Yield includes the potential price gain that you’ll realize if the stock’s price does rise above the call strike price.  For example, for ETN, you’d receive an additional $1.07/share, if the stock rises above $45.oo and gets assigned/sold away from you at expiration.

(You can see more details on these and more than 30 other high yield covered call trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

ETN-ITW-CALLS

Cash Secured Puts: This is a more conservative approach to take: Sell cash secured puts at a strike price below the stock’s current price, so you achieve an even lower break-even price.

As an example, selling ITW $45.00 March put options gives you a $42.20 break-even, which is approx. only 8% above ITW’s 52-week low, as opposed to being over 18% above its low, where it was at the time of publication.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the stock won’t ge lower than your break-even price, but using this put strategy will decrease your risk more than if you’d just bought the stock outright.  As with the call options, there’s a big payoff disparity between the quarterly dividends and the options in these put trades, with put option premiums that are as high as 12 times the dividends.

(You can find more details on these and over 30 other high yield options trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

ETN-ITW-PUTS

EPS: The EPS growth for the most recent fiscal year, quarter, and next fiscal year looks solid for all of these stocks:

ETN-ITW-EPS

Valuations: All of these firms have low Price/Sales and Next Year PEG’s that are right around the undervalued threshold of 1.00.:

ETN-ITW-PEG

Financials: These firms’ all have low debt loads, and their mgt. ratios are generally in line or better than their peers.

ETN-ITW-ROE

Technical Data: As their Relative Strength is in the low 50′s, all 3 stocks are in the neutral, “not oversold/not overbought” region.:

ETN-ITW-BETA

Company Profiles:

Eaton (ETN): Founded in 1911, Eaton is a global technology leader in electrical components and systems for power quality, distribution and control; hydraulics components, systems and services for industrial and mobile equipment; aerospace fuels, hydraulics and pneumatic systems for commercial and military use; plus truck and auto drive-train and power-train systems for performance, fuel economy and safety. Eaton has approx. 73,000 employees and sells products in over 150 countries.

Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Another multibillion dollar firm with nearly 100 years of history, ITW designs and manufactures fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems and a large array of specialty products and equipment for its worldwide customer base. ITW owns more than 840 small businesses, which are decentralized, and operate in various markets, such as: industrial packaging, power systems/electronics, food equipment, and construction products, among many others.

Tyco Int’l (TYC): Tyco is a leading provider of security products and services, fire protection and detection products and services, and industrial valves and controls. Tyco had 2011 revenue of more than $17 billion and has more than 100,000 employees worldwide.  Tyco owns the dominant US residential security firm, ADT.

Disclosure: Author has no positions in ETN, ITW, or TYC at the time of publication.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2011 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

2 Easy Ways To Earn 20% On Industrial Dividend Stocks

By Robert Hauver

Although Industrials are down approx. -4% year-to-date, this sector may hold some of the best stocks to buy moving forward. Standard & Poor’s ranks Industrials as #2 in projected EPS growth for 2012, right behind Tech, which gives it the 3rd lowest PEG ratio for 2012:

S&P-EPS-Q3

(Data source: Standard & Poors)

Thus far, 86% of S&P 500 Industrials have beaten or met their Q3 2011 Earnings Estimates, 2nd only to Tech.

S&P-EPS-BEAT-Q3-'11

(Data source: Standard & Poors)

Although this sector looks attractive, finding undervalued high dividend stocks here with strong metrics is still a challenge.  A different approach would be to look for a lower-yelding dividend paying stocks, that have stronger growth and financials, and then utilize options to ramp up the dividend yields on these dividend stocks. Both Caterpillar and Cummins have less-than-avg. dividend yields, but you can greatly improve upon their dividends by selling options.

CAT-CMI-DIVS

Covered Calls: Take a look at the big difference between these high option yields and the dividend yields during these 6-7 month trades.

CAT’s call options pay over 9 times their dividends, while CMI’s pay over 15 times.

(The call and put options listed in this article for CAT expire in May, and those for CMI expire in June.)

(You can find more details on this and more than 30 other high yield covered call trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

CAT-CMI-CALLS

Cash Secured Puts: Another proven tactic is selling cash secured puts below the stock’s current share price, in order to achieve an even lower break-even price. The put trade listed here for CMI has a break-even only 3% above CMI’s 52-week low. These put options pay 9 to 16 times more than the dividends in these trades.

Your broker will secure a cash reserve in your account, equal to however many put contracts you sell, times the strike price of the put you sell. This amount is released once the puts expire or the trade is closed. Hence the term, cash secured puts. You’ll get paid for any puts and calls that you sell within 3 days of the trade, often even the same day. Note: put sellers don’t receive dividends, but call sellers do.

The best time to sell cash secured puts is normally when the stock is at the lower part of its range, which will give you an even lower break-even. Both CAT and CMI are higher-beta stocks, which fluctuate widely with the market, so check out their put prices during the next pullback.  If you need to be even more conservative, you could also sell cash secured puts at a strike price further below the current share price. This will give you a lower premium, but a lower break-even also.

(You can see more details on these and over 30 other high yield options trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

CAT-CMI-PUTS

EPS/Sales Growth: Both CAT and CMI had strong EPS growth in their most recent fiscal years, and also strong sales and EPS growth in their most recent quarter:

CAT-CMI-EPS

Valuations: CAT’s PEG for its next fiscal year is very low, while CMI’s is consistent with the sector’s .87 PEG. CAT’s Price/Book and Price/Sales are consistent with its industry, while CMI’s Price/Book is a bit higher than its industry avg. of 2.58, but its Price/Sales is lower than the avg. of 1.30

CAT-CMI-PEG

Financials: Although CAT carries a heavier debt load, its interest coverage ratio is 5.9x.

CAT-CMI-ROE

Disclosure: Author is short puts on CAT and CMI.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2011 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved