Two Auto Parts Dividend Stocks With Undervalued Growth

Since the US auto industry had its best sales quarter in 4 years in Jan-March, and overall world sales are also expected to increase in 2012, you’d think that auto parts companies would be fairly valued already. But, that’s not the case, even with standout growth apparent in some firms. We found 2 solid dividend paying stocks within this sub-industry that are undervalued on many metrics: Magna International, (MGA), a Canadian firm, and Standard Motor Products, (SMP), a US firm. Magna sells its parts to Original Equipment Manufacturers, and Standard sells its parts in both the aftermarket segment and also to Original Equipment Manufacturers. (More detailed profiles are at the end of this article.)

Both of these dividend stocks had strong growth in their most recent quarter, and have good growth forecasts for their next fiscal year. However, their P/E’s are way below industry avgs., making them look undervalued on a PEG ratio basis.  MGA’s current 10.72 P/E is approx. in the middle of its historic P/E range of 7.93 – 14.03, while SMP’s 5.44 P/E is actually below its historic range of  7.24 – 27.97.  Both stocks are also cheap on a Price/Book and Price/Sales basis:

MGA-SMP-PEG

Even though it’s up over 35% in 2012, MGA still looks undervalued.  SMP is down over -24% this year:

MGA-SMP-PERF

Dividends: MGA and SMP both increased their quarterly dividends in 2011 and 2012 – MGA went from $.18 in 2009, to $.25 in 2011, and raised it again, to $.275, in 2012.  SMP raised its dividend from $.05 to $.07 in 2011, and again to $.09 in 2012:

MGA-SMP-DIVS

Covered Calls: Want to rev up the dividend yield on these stocks? You can do it via selling covered call options: Both stocks have relatively high options yields which you can use to turn them into short term high dividend stocks. MGA’s call options yields outpay its next 2 quarterly dividends by over 5 to 1. Click here for a blow-by-blow outline of selling covered calls.

MGA-SMP-CALLS

(You can find more details for over 30 other high options yields trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

Cash Secured Puts: This is a strategy to use if you want to earn some option income now, with the potential of having a stock put, (sold), to you in the future.

SMP has higher put options yields in the 2 trades listed below. SMP’s August $15.00 put currently pays just over 10%, on a 4-month term, for a very high annualized yield of over 33%.

You’re basically getting paid to wait, with the possiblity of having SMP put/sold to you at the $15.00 strike price, if SMP goes below $15.00 at or near expiration. However, your break-even cost would be $13.45, due to the $1.55 put premium you received when you made the put sale.  As with the calls, these put options pay a lot more than the dividends do over the next 4-5 months. (Note: Put sellers don’t receive any dividends.)

Unlike selling covered calls, when selling cash secured put options, you don’t buy the underlying stock first.  Instead, your broker will “secure”, i.e. hold, an amount equal to 100 times the strike price of the put option you sell.  In the SMP example below, you’d sell 1 $15.00 put option.

Since each option corresponds to 100 shares of the underlying stock, your broker would hold $1500.00 for every $15.00 put option that you sell.  At expiration time in August, you’ll either end up with 100 shares of SMP being sold to you, or the $15.00 put will expire worthless.

You can see more details on these and over 30 other high yield Cash Secured Puts trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

MGA-SMP-PUTS

Financials: Both firms have better Mgt., debt, and margin metrics than industry avgs., but SMP is the winner in all categories, except for debt. SMP has a very impressive Interest Coverage ratio of 17.9:

MGA-SMP-ROE

Profiles:

Magna International: With 286 manufacturing operations and 88 product development, engineering and sales centers in 26 countries on five continents as of Q4 2011, Magna is the most diversified automotive supplier in the world. We design, develop and manufacture automotive systems, assemblies, modules and components, and engineer and assemble complete vehicles, primarily for sale to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of cars and light trucks in our three geographic segments – North America, Europe, and Rest of World (primarily Asia, South America and Africa).

Magna’s capabilities include the design, engineering, testing and manufacture of automotive interior systems; seating systems; closure systems; metal body & chassis systems; mirror systems; exterior systems; roof systems; electronic systems; powertrain systems as well as complete vehicle engineering and assembly. (Source: MGA website)

Standard Motor Products: SMP is a leading independent manufacturer, distributor and marketer of replacement parts for motor vehicles in the automotive aftermarket industry, with an increasing focus on the original equipment and original equipment service markets.  The company is organized into two major operating segments, each of which focuses on a specific line of replacement parts. The Engine Management Segment manufactures ignition and emission parts, ignition wires, battery cables and fuel system parts. The Temperature Control Segment manufactures and remanufactures air conditioning compressors, air conditioning and heating parts, engine cooling system parts, power window accessories, and windshield washer system parts. We also sell our products in Europe through our European Segment.

SMP sells primarily to warehouse distributors, large retail chains, original equipment manufacturers and original equipment service part operations in the United States, Canada and Latin America. Our customers consist of many of the leading auto parts retail chains, such as Advance Auto Parts, AutoZone, O’Reilly Automotive/CSK Auto and Pep Boys. (Source: SMP website)

Disclosure: Author had no positions at time of writing this article.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

How To Buy Apple Below The Market And Earn High Options Yields

By Robert Hauver

Apple, (AAPL), has been much more volatile ever since the US Dept. of Justice announced an investigation into possible e-book price fixing, dropping from its high of $644.00 down to a $572.98 close this week. Adding to the volatility is the anticipation for AAPL’s next quarterly earnings report, scheduled for Tuesday, April 25th.

AAPL has reported spectacular earnings growth over the past 4 quarters, and has surprised to the upside in the “Earnings Surprise” game in 3 of the past 4 quarters. The table below shows the Post-Earnings Share Price changes on the day following each earnings report.

AAPL’s “stumble” in mid – Oct. 2011, when it reported a mere 52% EPS growth and missed inflated analyst expectations, happened during last fall’s high volatility period. The share price only fell -5.59% the day after earnings, but fell from $422.24 to a low of $363.57, (a 13.90% drawdown). during the Nov. market pullback, finally recovering on Jan. 6, 2012, and is currently approx. 36% above its Oct. 18, 2011 price, as of 4/20/12:

AAPL-EARN SURPRISE

After AAPL’s stellar Q1 Fiscal Year report, analysts have kept raising earnings estimates for next Tuesday’s report, with growth forecasts that leave AAPL’s mega-cap peers in the dust.  Looking at AAPL’s past quarterly EPS growth numbers, though, one can hardly blame them for getting so excited.

With estimates and expectations so high, one wonders if AAPL can possibly avoid “disappointing” analysts next Tuesday, while still turning in strong growth figures? Moreover, how will the market react?:

AAPL-Q2-2012 CONSENSUS

So, how can you profit from AAPL’s current volatility and 12.6% pullback?  The prudent approach is probably to wait for next Tuesday’s results and market reaction, but what if AAPL blows out its earnings once again, and soars out of reach?

Fortunately, AAPL has rather high options yields, so, a conservative way to profit in this situation, even if AAPL soars, is to sell cash secured puts below AAPL’s share price, which, of course, is a rapidly moving target. Conversely, if the market is disappointed with AAPL’s report, and its price declines, its put option premiums will rise, including those on the many other strike prices below these put options, resulting in even lower break-even points.

You could sell puts at an even lower strike price in that scenario. As usual, you’ll get paid the put premium price within 3 days of making the trade.

There are 2 variables to this approach – Expiration Month and Strike Price. Here are some examples of the current put options payouts for 2 different put option strike prices that expire in August. Lower strike prices offer lower put premium payouts, but also have lower break-even prices.  The key here is to find a strike price far enough below AAPL’s stock price that achieves the balance between your risk tolerance and your target option income:

AAPL-PUTSTRIKES

There are more details on these and over 30 other Cash Secured Puts trades with high options yields in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

The next table has examples of the current put options payouts for various expiration months, using the same put option strike price of $580.00. Put premiums are higher for longer expiration dates, which gives you a lower break-even, but a lower annualized yield, due to the longer time period. Again, the more conservative approach is to sell at strike prices further below AAPL’s strike price.

AAPL-PUTMONTHS

AAPL is due to join the ranks of dividend paying stocks sometime in the July-Sept. 2012 quarter, but hasn’t announced its ex-dividend date yet. (Note: Put sellers don’t receive dividends, we list dividends here for comparison only.):

Disclosure: Author is short Apple put options.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

These Dow Dividend Stocks Are Bucking The April Pullback

By Robert Hauver

It’s been a rainy April for the market thus far, with the S&P down almost -3.00% through 4/19/12. Being  optimistic, we went searching for dividend paying stocks that are bucking the new market pullback.  We found 2 contenders, Caterpillar, (CAT), and Home Depot, (HD), that have held their own in this month’s market decline, and have also done well in recent rallies:

CAT-HD-PERF

HD beat CAT in the Nov. 2011 pullback, and has also had stronger share performance year to date and during this month’s decline.

Valuations & Earnings Growth: CAT derives a lot of its profits from overseas, vs. Home Depot’s mostly domestic focus on the US home market. Subsequently, CAT has had stronger earnings growth in its most recent quarter and fiscal year, as the hobbled US consumer slowly picks up spending, and the home market remains weak. Although it’s up over 18% this year, CAT still looks more undervalued on a PEG basis than HD.

CAT-HD-PEG

We’ll find out if CAT’s current EPS projections hold, when it reports earnings, on its upcoming April 25th morning conference call next week. (Judging by how far off analysts have been in their CAT estimates in recent quarters, it should be an interesting report.)

CAT-ANLYSTMISSES

Dividends: Although CAT and HD aren’t high dividend stocks, both firms have a 5-year dividend growth rate that’s above their industry avgs.: CAT’s is 9.62%, and HD’s is 9.03%. CAT’s dividend payout ratio is more conservative than its industry avgs., while HD’s is much higher than its industry’s low avg. of 26.4%:

CAT-HD-DIVS

Covered Calls: Combining covered call options with dividend stocks is a powerful way to create much more immediate income than many stocks’ dividends offer over 1 – 3 quarters.  The increase in income is particularly high in a stock like CAT, which has high options yields that dwarf its dividend yield.  The tradeoff is that you may forgo potential future price gains, in return for being paid a call option premium now.  CAT has a higher beta and more volatility than HD, which gives it higher options yields.

In this trade, CAT’s August $110.00 call options pay well over 12 times its $.46 quarterly dividend.

CAT-HD-CALLS

If CAT is above $110.00 at or near expiration in August, your shares will be sold/assigned for $110.00, no matter how much higher CAT rises.  You’ll receive an additional $2.64/share in price gain, for an additional assigned yield of 7.54% annualized, and the total potential assigned yield is 25.86%. ($110.00 strike price – $107.36 stock cost = $2.64/share.)

How does this compare to just buying CAT outright at $107.36? Since you received a call premium of $5.95, at a strike price of $110.00, your maximum price point potential is $115.95.  If CAT doesn’t go as high as $115.95 during this 4-month term, you’d be ahead by selling this covered call.

(Each option contract corresponds to 100 shares of the underlying stock.)

The 3 income streams in this covered call trade are, (for 1oo shares of stock bought and 1 call option sold):

1. Call premium of $5.95/share, (paid within 3 days of the trade): $595.00

2. Quarterly dividend of $.46/share, (paid in August, ex-dividend date in July): $46.00

3. Potential assigned price gain of $2.64/share, if CAT is above $110.00 at or near expiration: $264.00

(You can see more details for over 30 other high options yields trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

Technical Data: CAT and HD have been two of the best stocks to buy for price gains over the past year:

CAT-HD-TECH

As the table above shows, both of these stocks are quite close to their 52-week highs, which leads us to another, more conservative options strategy – selling puts.

Cash Secured Puts: By selling cash secured puts below a stock’s current price, you’ll achieve a lower break-even price, and also get paid within 3 days of making the put sale. However, you won’t qualify for any dividends, but, as you can see, the put options listed below pay out over 6 to 14 times what these quarterly dividends pay.

For every put option that you sell, your broker will secure enough cash in your account to purchase 100 shares of the underlyng stock, at whatever the put option’s strike price is, hence the name “cash secured puts”. In the CAT put option trade below, the broker would hold $10,500.00, (100 times the $105.00 strike price).

There are more details on these and over 30 other high yield Cash Secured Puts trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

CAT-HD-PUTS

Financials: Both firms’ metrics are far above their industry avgs, except for CAT’s higher debt load. However, CAT has an interest coverage ratio of 6.4.

CAT-HD-ROE

Disclosure: Author is short Caterpillar put options.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

2 Ways To Hedge Your 2012 Apple Gains

By Robert Hauver

Could this be true? Apple fell on a big “up” market day Thursday, and is negative for the week so far, (-.05%).  Is the game changing, or is AAPL just taking a breather, as investors get a little skittish from a government E-book price fixing probe?

As you most likely know, AAPL has been one of the best stocks to buy for price gains year-to-date, and over the past year.  However, it slowed down its torrid pace in March, gaining 10.53%, vs. it 18.83% gain in February, and is up just 3.74% so far in April.

The mere fact that we’re calling a 10%-plus monthly gain a “slowdown” seems absurd, and illustrates just how well AAPL has performed, and how much the market has come to expect it to perform. But maybe it’s time to hedge your 2012 gains, with AAPL up almost 54% year-to-date, and up 100% from its 52-week low:

AAPL-PERF

AAPL-BETA

If you’d had the prescience to buy AAPL on its way up, you may be wondering which is the best way to hedge your gains. There are numerous ways to hedge, but selling covered calls is an options trading strategy that will create some immediate income for you, and also hedge some of your gains.

Below are two approaches to selling covered calls:

1. Longer Expirations: By selling call options further out in time, you’ll earn more call premium $, and achieve a lower break-even price. In the examples below, we’ve used AAPL’s opening price for 2012 as our cost, in order to show how much of 2012′s gains you can hedge by selling covered calls with various expiration dates:

AAPL-CALLS-TIME

As you sell calls at expiration months further out in time, your call premiums increase – the Jan. 2013 $625.00 call pays $76.10, and hedges over 35% of the year-to-date gain, vs. a $52.45 call premium for the nearer August call, which hedges approx. 25% of the gain.

Tradeoff: Your break-even cost of $328.00 is also lower with the higher Jan. 2013 call option premium, vs. $354.30 for the August expiration.  However, your annualized yield is lower, since it’s a 9-month trade, vs. only 4 months for the Aug. 2012 trade.  (As we don’t yet know what AAPL’s ex-dividend date will be for the 3rd and 4th quarter, we’ve speculated that it might fall before the August expiration. However, it would certainly fall before the Oct. 2012 expiration, and you’d receive 2 quarterly dividends with the Jan. 2013 trade.)

(You can see additional details for over 30 other high options yields trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

2. Higher Strike Prices: A more bullish approach would be to sell covered call options at a higher strike price, in order to leave more room for future potential price gains. If you think that AAPL has more room to run, you could sell covered calls at strike prices higher than AAPL’s current strike price. We used AAPL’s 4/12/22 price of $622.50 for this example, which shows the range of call option payouts you’d receive for 3 different Jan. 2013 strike prices.

Tradeoff: All 3 strike prices are above AAPL’s current price, but as you sell at higher call strike prices, you’ll receive less premium. However, the Jan. 2012 $640.00 call strike price leaves you $17.50/share in potential assigned price gains, vs. only $7.50/share for the Jan. $630.00 strike price.  As usual, the more call premium $ you receive, the lower your break-even is:

AAPL-STRIKES

Dividends: Apple announced in March that it will be entering the world of dividend stocks sometime in the July-Sept. 2012 quarter, paying $2.65/share quarterly.  Market commentators have increasingly compared AAPL, with its huge cash hoard, to other Tech dividend paying stocks, clamoring for a dividend payout.  CEO Tim Cook took their advice, and also instituted a 3-year $10 billion stock buyback plan that starts in October, which will mitigate the effect of employee stock option dilution of shares.

AAPL-DIVS

Valuations: AAPL’s PEG ratio might turn out to be much lower than 1.25, since they’ve exceeded earnings estimates handily for the past  3 out of 4 quarters.  Consider this: AAPL earned $27.68/share in its last fiscal year, which ended 9/30/12, and has already earned $13.87 in its first fiscal quarter, which ended 12/31/12. Since it’s already earned 50% of its past fiscal year’s profit in one quarter, it seems a reasonable bet that AAPL can grow its next fiscal year earnings by a lot more than 14.31%.

By the way, AAPL is also one of only 4 large cap stocks with 40%-plus sales growth over the past 5 years. Just imagine – they grew their sales over 41% through the Great Recession – what an accomplishment! So, the biggest market cap stock in the world is also a growth stock:

AAPL-PEG

Financials: AAPL’s Mgt. ratios and operating margin far outshines industry avgs., and it has no debt:

AAPL-ROE

If you haven’t gotten on board the AAPL bandwagon, any upcoming pullbacks may offer you a chance to do so. In our next article, we’ll detail a lucrative way to sneak up on this stellar stock.

Disclosure: Author is short Apple put options.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

Two Oversold And Undervalued Blue Chip Energy Dividend Stocks

By Robert Hauver

The market’s big multi-month rally may have you wondering if there are any oversold and undervalued dividend stocks left.  The Basic Materials sector has lagged the other sectors over the past year, and is also next to last in appreciation year-to-date, but has shown more signs of life this past week.

The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry within this sector has two dividend paying stocks that look oversold and mostly undervalued: Halliburton, (HAL), and Schlumberger, (SLB).  Halliburton’s P/E of 10.31 is near the low end of its 5-year P/E range of 6.24 – 23.52, while SLB’s P/E of 19.87 is closer to the upper part of its 5-year range of 9.58 – 24.97.

As the 2 premier stocks within this industry, both of these stocks usually command a premium Price/Book, but they’re both undervalued on a PEG ratio basis. HAL had strong EPS growth in its most recent fiscal year and quarter, and is projected to have strong growth in its next fiscal year. SLB has a much higher P/E, but also had strong sales and EPS growth in its most recent quarter, and is forecast to have over 22% EPS growth in its next fiscal year:

HAL-SLB-PEG

Share Performance: Like many other Basic Materials stocks, both of these stocks are down considerably over the past 12 months. They’re also way down from their 52-week highs, and have low Relative Strengths of below 40, indicating that they’re starting to enter the upper regions of oversold territory:

HAL-SLB-PERF

Dividends: Both firms managed to maintain their dividends during the 2008 crisis, and Schlumberger increased its quarterly dividend in 2012, to $.275/share, from $.25.

HAL-SLB-DIVS

Covered Calls: Although these certainly aren’t high dividend stocks, they both have high options yields that dwarf their dividend yield.  We’ve listed 2 different covered call options trades for HAL, to illustrate how you can tailor option trading strategies to meet your market bias, be it conservative or aggressive. When you sell covered call options at higher strike prices, you receive lower premiums, but you leave more room for potential price gains.

The first HAL call is more defensive: It has a strike price of $33.00, and its call bid premium of $3.35 is over 18 times HAL’s 2 dividend payouts during this 7-month term.  However, since the call strike price and the stock price are equal, the $33.00 call options leave no room for potential assigned yield, (price appreciation).

The second HAL trade is more bullish: It has a $34.00 strike price, which leaves you the potential for a $1.00/share price gain, but its call bid premium is only $2.88, $.47/share less than the $33.00 call option.

(You can find additional details for this and over 30 other high options yields trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

HAL-SLB-CALLS

Cash Secured Puts: Experienced traders also sell cash secured put options as a way to earn a profit now from stocks that they want to accumulate.  By selling a put, you’re obligating yourself to potentially have to buy a stock at a given put strike price by expiration, if the stock goes below that strike price. Like call options, you get paid a put premium within 3 days of making the trade, (often the same day), as opposed to waiting for quarterly dividends and possible price gains.

Generally, most stocks aren’t assigned or “put” to you until sometime near their expiration date. The reason for this is twofold:

1. Put option buyers will mostly end up selling their open puts, instead of exercising them. They may not want to allocate the cash needed to actually buy the shares and then sell/put them to a put seller.

2. Option buyers want to capitalize as much as possible on the potential price appreciation of the options.

The SLB trade listed below is more conservative than the HAL  trade, in that its strike price is below SLB’s $68.69 price/share.  This gives you a break-even that’s fairly close to SLB’s 52-week low of $54.79.  SLB’s November $67.50 put options pay over 7 times what its dividends pay for the next 8 months.

You can find more details on these and over 30 other high yield Cash Secured Puts trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

HAL-SLB-PUTS

Financials: Both firms’ financial figures are superior to industry averages, except for operating margins, where the industry averages appear to be skewed higher, mostly by much smaller companies:

HAL-SLB-ROE

As the market starts to realize that these oil & gas service firms are able to quickly reallocate their resources to high demand areas, HAL and SLB may be two of the best stocks to buy for price gains.

Disclosure: Author is short Haliburton put options.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved