This Hot High Dividend Stock May Still Be Undervalued

by Robert Hauver

Our quest for undervalued high dividend paying stocks keeps leading us back to the Energy sector, which took a beating in the second quarter, but has come back strong since late June. In a previous article, we wrote about Pioneer Southwest Energy, (PSE), an energy stock which had been left behind in the summer rally.

This article focuses on Calumet Specialty Products Partners, (CLMT), an LP which is a combo oil & gas processor/refiner. With its 8%-plus dividend yield, CLMT is listed in our High Dividend Stocks By Sector Tables.  Unlike PSE, CLMT hasn’t been left behind this summer, and has greatly outperformed the S&P since late June.  It also looks closer to being overbought than oversold on its stochastic chart:

Undervalued Thesis: Thanks to a series of acquisitions, CLMT had great growth in 2011, and thus far in 2012, with 2012 EPS estimated at $3.34 on average, a torrid 151% pace. Its long-term 5-year growth projection of 26.81% gives it a very low 0.36 PEG:

Here’s the rub – analysts are currently estimating a -3.89% downturn in EPS for 2013:

But analysts may be underestimating the 2013 earnings impact of CLMT’s acquisitions, if the last 2 quarters are any harbinger of what’s to come. CLMT earned $0.97 in the first quarter, and increased to $1.14 in the 2nd quarter of 2012, an approximately 87% to 100% increase over the previous year’s quarters.

So, if CLMT matches the lower, $.97 1st quarter figure over the next 2 quarters, it would earn $4.05 in 2012, and probably even more in 2013, since it has made more acquisitions since the 2nd quarter, which will be accretive to earnings:

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

Using a risk-adjusted discounted rate of 8.37% vs. future earnings also shows CLMT to be undervalued, with a whopping value of $132.97.

Dividends: After paying its first 2 quarterly distributions of $.63 in 2007, CLMT’s payout slipped to $.45/quarter in 2008-2009, but has increased steadily ever since – $.46 in 2010, form $.47 up to $.50 in 2011, and from $.53 to $.59 in 2012.

Even though it still looks undervalued on a long term basis, given the big run that CLMT has had…

You may want to wait for a pullback, or, alternatively, sell Covered Calls, to achieve a lower break-even cost.

Here’s a trade for CLMT from our Covered Calls Table, which lists 30 other high yield trades:

This 5-month trade offers a few different income scenarios:

1. Static – Maximum income of $2.48, (dividends and call premium), if CLMT doesn’t rise above the $30.00 call strike price near its ex-dividend dates, or at expiration.

2. Assigned – Minimum income of $2.15, ($.85 price gain + call premium), if CMLT does rise above the $30.00 call strike price near its first ex-dividend date, and your shares are assigned. Maximum income of $3.33 if CMLT gets assigned at expiration, AND you collect both quarterly $.59 dividends.

CLMT also has put options available, but the only high yield is on a $30.00 strike price, which is above the current price/share.

Financials: CLMT has good Mgt. Efficiency ratios, but does carry more debt than industry averages. However, it has 4.1 Interest Coverage Ratio. Its Operating Margins should improve, as it integrates its acquisitions.

Company Profile: Calumet is a master limited partnership and is a leading independent producer of high-quality, specialty hydrocarbon products in North America. Calumet processes crude oil and other feedstocks into customized lubricating oils, solvents, waxes and asphalt used in consumer, industrial, and automotive products. Calumet also produces fuel products including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Calumet is based in Indianapolis, Indiana and has nine facilities located in northwest Louisiana, northwest Wisconsin, western Pennsylvania, southeastern Texas and eastern Missouri. (Source: Calumet website)

Disclosure:  Author had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this article at the time of this writing.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

A High Dividend Stock That’s Ready To Rise

by Robert Hauver

Looking for cheap high dividend paying stocks? MV Oil Trust, (MVO), has shown a recurring pattern of price troughs that rise into peaks as it approaches its quarterly ex-dividend dates, which fall around the 12th of January, April, July, and October. It recently crossed back above the oversold line on its stochastic chart:

Dividends: With its 11%-plus dividend yield, MVO sits atop the Energy section of our High Dividend Stocks By Sector Tables.  By law, trusts are required to pay out at least 90% of their income in distributions, in return for not paying taxes. MVO’s next ex-dividend date should be around October 12th. (Trust dividends are referred to as distributions.)

Dividend History: MVO will need to pay out at least $.76 in October, to keep pace with its 2011 payout level. Judging by its earnings, (see below), this should be achievable.

Earnings: MVO is one of only of a handful of energy trusts which had strong earnings growth in 2011, (up over 25%), and in the most recent quarter. As noted below, MVO earns royalties from assets which are 98% oil, vs. only 2% natural gas, hence its advantage over natural gas trusts, many of which had been hurt by plummeting prices.

Profile: MV Oil Trust was formed in August 2006, by MV Partners, LLC. MV Partners conveys a term net profits interest to the trust that represents the right to receive 80% of the net proceeds from all of MV Partners’ interests in oil and natural gas properties, which are located in the Mid-Continent region in the States of Kansas and Colorado.  As of June 30, 2006, the underlying properties produced predominantly oil from approximately 985 wells, and the projected reserve life of the underlying properties was in excess of 50 years.

Production from the underlying properties for the year ended December 31, 2005, was approximately 98% oil and approximately 2% natural gas and natural gas liquids. The underlying properties are all located in mature fields that are characterized by long production histories and numerous additional development opportunities to help reduce the natural decline in production from the underlying properties.

The net profits interest will terminate on the later to occur of (1) June 30, 2026, or (2) the time when 14.4 MMBoe have been produced from the underlying properties and sold (which amount is the equivalent of 11.5 MMBoe in respect of the trust’s right to receive 80% of the net proceeds from the underlying properties pursuant to the net profits interest).

Options: There are no put options or call options available for MVO.

Disclosure:  Author had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this article at the time of this writing.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

Cisco – A Tech High Dividend Stock That’s Still Undervalued

by Robert Hauver

After getting bashed in the 2nd quarter, Cisco Systems, (CSCO), stock has done well this summer, gaining over 17% since the June lows. CSCO is also one of the top 4 DOW 30 performers over the past trading month, gaining 6.90%, and trailing only HD, CAT, and IBM, which leads the DOW pack with an 8.49% gain. Even with its big summer gains, CSCO still trails the market year to date:

Thanks to a stronger fiscal 4th quarter earnings report, in which adjusted EPS rose 18% vs. fiscal Q4 2011, Cisco’s full year 2012 EPS growth also looked good. In fact, one could argue that CSCO is still undervalued on a 2012 PEG basis. Looking forward, the consensus for 2013 calls for 10.81% EPS growth, which puts CSCO a bit over the 1.00 PEG threshold for being undervalued.

However, using the consensus future earnings growth rate of 8.09%, with a risk-adjusted 10.41% discount rate, shows CSCO’s estimated value to be approximately $23.25, indicating that CSCO is currently undervalued by well over 20%.

Dividends: After having joined the universe of dividend stocks in 2011, CSCO is now approaching the arena of Tech high dividend stocks. CSCO just ratcheted up its quarterly dividends big time, by announcing a huge 75% increase, going to $.14, from $.08. This is the second increase in 2012 – CSCO increased its dividend in the 1st quarter to $.08, from its initial $.06 payout. This new higher dividend payout ups CSCO’s dividend yield significantly, to just below 3.00%, which is in the higher range for most Tech stocks:

Options Outlook: If you’re interested in pumping up CSCO’s dividend yield even further, you can gain additional immediate income via selling covered calls. Since the $19.00 call strike price is only $.13 above CSCO’s mid-day $18.87 price, it appears that you would risk having your CSCO shares assigned/sold before you collect one or both of the $.14 quarterly dividends before the Jan. 2013 expiration.

However, your Assigned compensation would be much more than the dividends anyway: $1.11 in call premium now, plus $.13 in assigned price gain, for a net gain of $1.24, a 6.57% gain. If your shares were assigned near the October ex-dividend date, in under 2 months, this would equal a 39%-plus annualized yield approximately. Conversely, if your shares are never assigned, the minimum yield you’d make would be a 17.57% annualized static yield.

You can see more info on over 30 other call trades in our Covered Calls Table:

Here’s a look at where CSCO is at price-wise over the past 52 weeks. With a very strong relative strength of 72.39, you certainly can’t say that CSCO is oversold:

Cash Secured Puts: Given CSCO’s recent big rise, a cautious way to still profit would be to sell cash secured put options. This January 2013 put gives you a break-even price of $17.52, in addition to offering an annualized yield of over 18%, over 5 times the dividend amount.

You can see more info on over 30 other call trades in our Covered Puts Table:

Financials: As Cisco is such a dominant player in its industry, industry comps are a bit dicey. However, these comps do include other large firms that compete with Cisco in certain areas, such as Juniper, (JNPR), Alcatel-Lucent, (ALU), and Hewlett Packard, (HPQ):

Disclosure:  Author was long CSCO shares and short CSCO puts at the time of this writing.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

Two Industrial Dividend Stocks With 30% Covered Call Yields

Standard Motor Products, (SMP), and Worthington Industries, (WOR), are both on a roll this summer, having rallied significantly since the June 4th lows:

Dividends: SMP goes ex-dividend next week, and WOR goes ex- in early September:

Covered Calls:  As you may have noticed on the 2 charts above, both SMP and WOR are currently showing as being overbought on their respective stochastic charts.  This overbought condition often offers the best covered call option yields, and also helps to lock in some of your profits. Both of these dividend stocks currently have very high options yields for their covered calls.

Here are are 2 trades from our Covered Calls Table:

Even though SMP and WOR aren’t high dividend stocks, their options pay out over 6 times their dividend amounts in these 2 trades.  The WOR covered call is in the money, with a strike price that’s slightly lower than SMP’s $22.53 price per share.  The SMP price is above SMP’s price per share, and thus offers an potential assigned yield of 7.64%, ($.34/share difference between the $17.50 strike price, and SMP’s $17.16 share price.)  The SMP is a longer term trade, expiring on November, hence its lower annualized yield:

Disclosure:  Author had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this article at the time of this writing.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

Standard Motor Parts Has Very High Options Yields

Standard Motor Parts, (SMP), had been beaten up after its disappointing 2nd quarter earnings release on May 3rd, but the market has gotten much more revved up about this Industrial dividend stock this summer. SMP received an analyst upgrade in early June, which certainly helped its share price:

Maybe this is why – even after its recent price gains, SMP still looks very undervalued on PEG basis.

Click here to read more…

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

 

BHP Billiton – An Undervalued Basic Materials Dividend Stock

By Robert Hauver

Looking for undervalued dividend paying stocks?  Like many Basic Materials stocks, BHP Billiton PLC, (BBL), has been under under pressure in 2012, due to slowing growth and tightening financial policy in China.  However, the Chinese government has begun loosening its policies, in order to keep growth moving near their targeted 7.5% GDP rate, which should help Basic Materials stocks such as BBL regain some of their luster.

Undervalued Growth: BBL, whose fiscal year ends 6/30/12,  looks undervalued on a PEG basis for 2012 and 2013:

Click here to read more…

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

Disney – An Undervalued Dividend Stock With Growth

By Robert Hauver

Looking for dividend paying stocks with growth at a reasonable price?  The Walt Disney Co., (DIS), which is in the fast-growing Diversified Media industry, has bettered its peers in 2012 for share performance. However, Disney still looks undervalued, on a PEG basis, due to its growth prospects:

DIS-PEG

DIS-BETA

Disney is currently cashing in big-time on the huge hit, “The Avengers”, which has grossed $1.18 billion so far in global ticket sales, making it Disney’s biggest grossing movie of all time, even higher than any of its successful “Pirates Of The Caribbean” films – sorry pirates… One of Disney’s major ongoing strengths is its ESPN cable franchise, which is the highest paid cable network around, netting over 4 times what other cable channels get paid.   Click here to learn more…

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

The Top Dow Dividend Stocks For First Quarter 2012 Earnings

By Robert Hauver

25 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials have reported 1st quarter 2012 earnings so far. 18 firms have reported positive growth, and 7 have reported negative growth, with the range running from Boeing, (BA), with 54% year-over-year 1st quarter growth, down to beleaguered Bank of America, (BAC), with -82%. These 2 Dow dividend stocks reported the best 1st quarter 2012 earnings growth year-over-year:

Click here to read more…

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved

How To Buy Apple Below The Market And Earn High Options Yields

By Robert Hauver

Apple, (AAPL), has been much more volatile ever since the US Dept. of Justice announced an investigation into possible e-book price fixing, dropping from its high of $644.00 down to a $572.98 close this week. Adding to the volatility is the anticipation for AAPL’s next quarterly earnings report, scheduled for Tuesday, April 25th.

AAPL has reported spectacular earnings growth over the past 4 quarters, and has surprised to the upside in the “Earnings Surprise” game in 3 of the past 4 quarters. The table below shows the Post-Earnings Share Price changes on the day following each earnings report.

AAPL’s “stumble” in mid – Oct. 2011, when it reported a mere 52% EPS growth and missed inflated analyst expectations, happened during last fall’s high volatility period. The share price only fell -5.59% the day after earnings, but fell from $422.24 to a low of $363.57, (a 13.90% drawdown). during the Nov. market pullback, finally recovering on Jan. 6, 2012, and is currently approx. 36% above its Oct. 18, 2011 price, as of 4/20/12:

AAPL-EARN SURPRISE

After AAPL’s stellar Q1 Fiscal Year report, analysts have kept raising earnings estimates for next Tuesday’s report, with growth forecasts that leave AAPL’s mega-cap peers in the dust.  Looking at AAPL’s past quarterly EPS growth numbers, though, one can hardly blame them for getting so excited.

With estimates and expectations so high, one wonders if AAPL can possibly avoid “disappointing” analysts next Tuesday, while still turning in strong growth figures? Moreover, how will the market react?:

AAPL-Q2-2012 CONSENSUS

So, how can you profit from AAPL’s current volatility and 12.6% pullback?  The prudent approach is probably to wait for next Tuesday’s results and market reaction, but what if AAPL blows out its earnings once again, and soars out of reach?

Fortunately, AAPL has rather high options yields, so, a conservative way to profit in this situation, even if AAPL soars, is to sell cash secured puts below AAPL’s share price, which, of course, is a rapidly moving target. Conversely, if the market is disappointed with AAPL’s report, and its price declines, its put option premiums will rise, including those on the many other strike prices below these put options, resulting in even lower break-even points.

You could sell puts at an even lower strike price in that scenario. As usual, you’ll get paid the put premium price within 3 days of making the trade.

There are 2 variables to this approach – Expiration Month and Strike Price. Here are some examples of the current put options payouts for 2 different put option strike prices that expire in August. Lower strike prices offer lower put premium payouts, but also have lower break-even prices.  The key here is to find a strike price far enough below AAPL’s stock price that achieves the balance between your risk tolerance and your target option income:

AAPL-PUTSTRIKES

There are more details on these and over 30 other Cash Secured Puts trades with high options yields in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

The next table has examples of the current put options payouts for various expiration months, using the same put option strike price of $580.00. Put premiums are higher for longer expiration dates, which gives you a lower break-even, but a lower annualized yield, due to the longer time period. Again, the more conservative approach is to sell at strike prices further below AAPL’s strike price.

AAPL-PUTMONTHS

AAPL is due to join the ranks of dividend paying stocks sometime in the July-Sept. 2012 quarter, but hasn’t announced its ex-dividend date yet. (Note: Put sellers don’t receive dividends, we list dividends here for comparison only.):

Disclosure: Author is short Apple put options.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

A Major Oil High Dividend Stock With Undervalued Growth

By Robert Hauver

Are there any “bargain basement” high dividend stocks with strong financials, undervalued earnings growth, and future dividend growth? Surprisingly, British Petroleum, (BP), an energy stock that many investors dumped, after its Gulf oil spill debacle, looks like one of the best stocks to buy once again for these attributes.

Investors have been shunning Big Oil stocks for the past year, so this sub-industry group as a whole is down a bit over -1%. However, unlike two of its larger peers, Chevron, (CVX), and Exxon, (XOM), BP has actually been getting support from institutional buyers in the past few months. Technically speaking, BP is also in the upper region of oversold territory, with its RSI of 35.14:

BP-CVX-XOM-PERF

A lot of this new support has to do with BP’s improving earnings and low valuations.  BP has logged strong EPS growth in its most recent fiscal year, and recent quarter. Surprisingly, BP’s sales growth over the past 5 years topped both Exxon and Chevron, and was just above industry averages.  Although BP is only projected to grow 6.36% in its next fiscal year, its very low P/E gives it an enticing PEG ratio:

BP-PEG

Dividends: After the 2010 Gulf spill, BP needed to eliminate its $.84 quarterly dividend payout for the balance of 2010, but then reinstated in 2011, at 50% less, ($.42/quarter). In 2012, BP has been able to increase its quarterly dividends, for the first time since the spill, raising them over 14%, to $.48/share. BP has been a cash machine for a long time, and as it works through the Gulf settlement payouts, its cash flow will only get even better.

BP foresees future dividend increases, as it stated earlier in 2012: “With operating cash flow generated by BP in 2011 reaching some $22bn – over 60% higher than in 2010 – CEO Bob Dudley confirmed the company’s expectation that net cash flow in 2014, in a $100 oil price environment, would be around 50% higher than in 2011. Half of the additional cash is expected to be used for re-investment and half for other purposes including increased shareholder distributions. 2012 will be a year of increasing investment and milestones as we build on the foundations laid last year. As we move through 2013 and 2014, we expect financial momentum will build as we complete payments into the Gulf of Mexico Trust Fund, restore high-value production and bring new projects on stream.” (Source: BP website)

BP’s dividend yield is now above those of CVX and Exxon, and is also above industry averages:

BP-CVX-XOM-DIVS

Covered Calls: Many income investors have begun selling covered call options in order to increase their income from dividend paying stocks. This options trading strategy is an easy way to double, or even quadruple your dividends, depending on the stock.

If you already own the stock, you can then sell 1 call option contract for each 100 shares that you own. (One option contract corresponds to 100 shares of the underlying stock.)

If you don’t own the stock, here’s the sequence for selling covered calls on dividend stocks:

1. Buy the stock, in 100 share lots – example, buy 200 or 300, instead of 250 shares.

2. Sell 1 call option contract for each 100 shares that you own, at a strike price above the stock’s current share price. The further above the share price you sell, the less premium you’ll receive. The further out in time you sell, the more premium you’ll receive, which will lower your break-even. You receive this option $ within 3 days of selling, often even the same day.

3. Collect whatever quarterly dividends are due, as they pass their ex-dividend dates.

4. At expiration time, if the stock has risen above the strike price, your shares will be sold at the strike price, and you’ll also pocket the difference between the strike price and your cost per share.  If the stock isn’t above the strike price then, the call option will expire, leaving you with the initial call premium $ that you received, plus your dividends, as your profit.

These BP Oct. 2012 call options pay nearly 3 times the amount of BP’s 2 quarterly dividends during this 7-month period. This $45 Oct. 2012 call option also holds a potential assigned yield of 2.66% annualized, ($.65/share, the difference between the $45 strike price and BP’s $44.35 share price.)  The catch is that your BP shares will be sold/assigned at or near expiration time, if BP rises above the $45 strike price.

(You can find more details for this trade and over 30 other high options yields trades in our Covered Calls Table.)

BP-CALLS

Cash Secured Puts: If you’re still wary of BP’s gulf spill headline exposure, an alternative options trading strategy would be to sell cash secured put options, and literally “get paid now to wait”.

The BP OCT. $44.00 put option, which is below BP’s share price, would pay you $3.65/ share, ($365 per option contract). This gives you a lower break-even price, of $40.35.

High Options Yields: This put option pays out 3.8 times what BP’s dividends pay over the next 7 months. In addition, you’ll receive your options premium $ within 3 days of making the trade, often even the same day, so you’ll have the use of this $ now, instead of waiting for the quarterly dividends.  (Note: Put sellers don’t receive dividends.)

If BP is below $44.00 at or near the Oct. expiration, you’ll be sold/assigned 100 shares of BP, for every put contract that you sold.  However, your net cost will only be $40.35, ($44 strike price, minus the $3.65 put bid premium you received when you sold the put).

(You can find more info for this trade and over 30 other high yield Cash Secured Puts trades in our Cash Secured Puts Table.)

BP-PUTS

Financials: While they aren’t quite as impressive as some of Chevron’s and Exxon’s figures, BP’s financial metrics are all above industry averages, with the exception of its operating margin. Although BP’s Debt/Equity ratio is higher than CVX and XOM, BP has a very high Interest Coverage figure of 31.8:

BP-ROE

Disclosure: Author is long shares of BP and XOM, and is short BP put options.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only and isn’t intended as investment advice.

Author: Robert Hauver © 2012 Demar Marketing All Rights Reserved